Hello All,

I hope everyone is enjoying a nice July and for those of us in the northeast, I hope that new lake in your yard dries up soon.

There is no big news to share but as the happy train that is the recent stock market keeps rolling along, I thought I’d just chime in for a few quick thoughts.

My opinion that we are headed for a recession and an accompanying market correction has not changed. All the signs are there. Sometimes, however, it takes a while for the Fed’s efforts to take hold. The Fed have been raising rates to slow the economy and get inflation down. The June CPI just out shows a lower number which is a positive. But the core number is stubbornly higher. The market can ignore the warning signs and succumb to wishful thinking for longer than you’d think before waking up to reality. Remember 1999? I certainly do. AND I remember 2000 which came next and wasn’t pretty.

For one thing, the US manufacturing report showed that activity continued to slow in June and for the 8th month in a row indicated “contraction”. And only 4 of 18 industries reported growth in June.*

Another number that worries me is that the top 15 of the 500 companies in the S&P500 are up 34% and the remaining S&P constituents are up a mean 1%, or about flat for the year*. That means a lot of money is piling into 15 companies, that usually doesn’t end without a bang.

There are plenty of negative or declining numbers being reported but the market is still choosing to ignore them and focus on a soft landing or a “no landing” scenario. The Bulls are betting that somehow the aggressive Fed will succeed in getting inflation back to 2% but not induce an economic recession. I don’t buy it.

So, that’s it, short and sweet...be prepared and you won’t panic or make bad decisions later. Stay the course!

As always, our team is here to provide guidance and support as you make investment decisions. Do not hesitate to reach out to us if you have concerns.

Thank you,


Chris Reaney, CFP®

Founding Partner

Managing Director

Wealth Manager


Steward Partners Global Advisory

145 Maplewood Ave, Ste 100, Portsmouth, NH 03801

Direct: 603-427-8859 |Cell: 603-944-0873 | Fax: 603.373.8210

Email: chris.reaney@stewardpartners.com

Team Website: HighwaterGroup.stewardpartners.com



The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates.  All opinions are subject to change without notice.  Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. The index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market; however, since it includes a significant portion of the total value of the market, it also represents the market.


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