Hello Folks,

There are few things in life as difficult as patience and waiting. For months now we have been discussing the “most well telegraphed recession” in history, yet we haven’t seen it in the numbers. The FED has continued to raise rates and inflation is now down to the 4-5% area* but still above their 2% target and job numbers seem to be fairly resilient. And so far this year, the S&P500 is up in the 6-10% area**, depending upon which day you check. But those recessionary clouds are still on the horizon and getting closer.

As I’ve stated in my last two or three newsletters, we have seen two clear market camps develop, the “soft landing/no landing” bullish camp and the “hard landing” bearish camp. Although I am usually an optimistic guy, I still feel the near-term market direction is downward at some point this year before we can begin a sustainable recovery, in both the economy and the markets. As I have opined before, the market is likely to recover before the economy. Sorry, but I don’t want to sugar coat it.

The good news is that we still see good job numbers (low unemployment and plenty of job openings) that may stay stronger than during most downturns and I expect a recession and a market correction/bottom to be short lived. But, in my opinion, unemployment will go up from these lows which means layoffs and negative economic news. And I hate to say this, but I just want to get it over-with. The sooner, the better. In no way have I lost my optimism as far as innovation, technological advances, medical breakthroughs, dominance of U.S. companies, the strength of the next expansion, nor the FED’s ability to get us back on track to a healthy economy alongside a lower inflation rate. But it will require patience.

So, that’s it, short and sweet... Stay the course!

As always, our team is here to provide guidance and support as you make investment decisions. Do not hesitate to reach out to us if you have concerns.

Thank you,



Chris Reaney, CFP®

Founding Partner

Managing Director

Wealth Manager


Steward Partners Global Advisory

145 Maplewood Ave, Ste 100, Portsmouth, NH 03801

Direct: 603-427-8859 |Cell: 603-944-0873 | Fax: 603.373.8210

Email: chris.reaney@stewardpartners.com

Team Website: HighwaterGroup.stewardpartners.com




*Brian Wesbury: The Consumer Price Index Rose 0.1% in March, Dated 4.12.2023

** FactSet as of 5.1.2023




The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates.  All opinions are subject to change without notice.  Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. The index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market; however, since it includes a significant portion of the total value of the market, it also represents the market.


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